Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 14 games
Marssignature
Oscar · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
Oscar · 9 games
Tiny
DarkMago · 9 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 1011 bans
Mars
376 picks · 610 bans
Lion
371 picks · 192 bans
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
317 picks · 504 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 154 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 75%
Hero pool strength59% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:26
NoPing VPN 46%beastcoast 54%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 34:31.
Game 2prediction missed44:21
NoPing VPN 46%beastcoast 54%
The model gave 54% on beastcoast — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 40:23.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 54%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2