Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
G · 12 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
400 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
374 picks · 610 bans
Lion
371 picks · 192 bans
Grimstroke
365 picks · 365 bans
Void Spirit
318 picks · 506 bans
Death Prophet
309 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
272 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:29
EXTREMUM 22%HellRaisers 78%
The model gave 78% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 46:03.
Game 2prediction correct12:31
EXTREMUM 22%HellRaisers 78%
The model gave 78% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 33:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 78%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2