Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 12 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
399 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
373 picks · 608 bans
Lion
369 picks · 192 bans
Grimstroke
365 picks · 365 bans
Void Spirit
317 picks · 507 bans
Death Prophet
310 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
270 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 56%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Team Spirit 79%Chicken Fighters 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:05.
Game 2prediction correct39:13
Team Spirit 79%Chicken Fighters 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2