Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 1016 bans
Mars
371 picks · 603 bans
Lion
364 picks · 189 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 368 bans
Void Spirit
322 picks · 508 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
262 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 48%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:31
Team Unique 43%PuckChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 53:06.
Game 2prediction correct11:31
Team Unique 43%PuckChamp 57%
The model gave 57% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 25:31.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 57%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2