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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Trident Clanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
31%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Duster · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
29%

Trident Clan

Mirana
Mirana
SoulEater · 4 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Munkushi~ · 4 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 3 games
0%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
antoha · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Pikachu · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
SoulEater · 3 games
33%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1012 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 599 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 364 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
360 picks · 189 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
320 picks · 508 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 682 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 227 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
256 picks · 143 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% Trident Clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
B8 Esports 56%Trident Clan 44%
The model gave 56% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerWatson
49% · 36 games50% · 44 games
InvokerPikachu
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaDendi
51% · 25 games44% · 27 games
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Faceless Void
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerLimitless
42% · 57 games45% · 41 game
UnderlordCorrupted
Underlord
Mirana
Mirananofear
50% · 45 games60% · 70 games
Nyx AssassinSoulEater
Nyx Assassin
Dark Willow
Dark Willow[T]SA
53% · 33 games54% · 14 games
Winter Wyvernantoha
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct16:6
B8 Esports 58%Trident Clan 42%
The model gave 58% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 20:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomDendi
55% · 43 games51% · 129 games
Wraith KingMunkushi~
Wraith King
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
51% · 89 games50% · 60 games
Storm SpiritPikachu
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterLimitless
55% · 69 games47% · 14 games
OmniknightCorrupted
Omniknight
Mirana
Mirananofear
55% · 85 games45% · 88 games
LionSoulEater
Lion
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor[T]SA
44% · 43 games43% · 38 games
Ancient Apparitionantoha
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 61%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2