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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
40%
Windranger
Windranger
Tims · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 17 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 16 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 13 games
23%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Raven · 11 games
27%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
41%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
514 picks · 357 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
360 picks · 637 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
354 picks · 410 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 469 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 179 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 348 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
304 picks · 587 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 229 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:28
OG 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaNatsumi
55% · 178 games54% · 283 games
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRaven
51% · 274 games53% · 348 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerYopaj
50% · 88 games51% · 177 games
LargoDavai
Largo
Windranger
WindrangerSkem
43% · 340 games48% · 134 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTims
43% · 216 games52% · 154 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct35:37
OG 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:14:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
55% · 95 games62% · 48 games
LinaLorenof
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
56% · 89 games54% · 87 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Undying
UndyingRaven
46% · 126 games47% · 94 games
SvenSumaiL
Sven
Rubick
RubickTims
45% · 111 games46% · 99 games
MiranaGH
Mirana
Windranger
WindrangerSkem
46% · 158 games50% · 251 game
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2