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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 6 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
80%

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1010 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 598 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
358 picks · 365 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
358 picks · 187 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 508 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
315 picks · 684 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
254 picks · 281 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:26
Infamous 53%Hokori 47%
The model gave 53% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 33:09.
Game 2prediction missed26:39
Infamous 53%Hokori 47%
The model gave 53% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 38:09.
Game 3prediction missed48:27
Infamous 53%Hokori 47%
The model gave 53% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 51:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 53%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3