Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
NARMAN · 17 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 16 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 15 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Juggernautoften banned
kAAN · 9 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
374 picks · 595 bans
Lion
359 picks · 187 bans
Grimstroke
354 picks · 365 bans
Void Spirit
322 picks · 510 bans
Death Prophet
314 picks · 688 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
256 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:14
No Bounty Hunter 27%Chicken Fighters 73%
The model gave 73% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 29:27.
Game 2prediction correct8:37
No Bounty Hunter 27%Chicken Fighters 73%
The model gave 73% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 29:14.
Game 3prediction missed27:12
No Bounty Hunter 27%Chicken Fighters 73%
The model gave 73% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 32:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 73%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3