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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 22 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 22 games
68%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 12 games
83%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
394 picks · 1013 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 595 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 187 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
354 picks · 365 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
322 picks · 510 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
314 picks · 688 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
256 picks · 282 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total81% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:25
ViKin.gg 70%Hellbear Smashers 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 1:13:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendBOOM
53% · 29 games49% · 96 games
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Juggernaut
JuggernautShad
60% · 102 games41% · 59 games
LeshracStormstormer
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaAramis
53% · 113 games43% · 134 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
58% · 107 games48% · 43 games
Legion CommanderMISERY
Legion Commander
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSeleri
48% · 76 games45% · 95 games
EnchantressGilgir
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct36:34
ViKin.gg 67%Hellbear Smashers 33%
The model gave 67% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 50:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
50% · 18 games52% · 82 games
Monkey KingAce
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBOOM
44% · 239 games61% · 50 games
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
45% · 66 games45% · 305 games
PuckMISERY
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 89 games56% · 120 games
PhoenixGilgir
Phoenix
Lion
LionAramis
48% · 170 games63% · 25 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 81%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2