Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
496 Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 8 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Force · 4 games
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Bombi · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
Snapfire
Bombi · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
396 picks · 1010 bans
Mars
374 picks · 595 bans
Lion
358 picks · 185 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 362 bans
Void Spirit
325 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 688 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
256 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:30
Nigma Galaxy SEA 55%496 Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 45:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusainYourdreaM
SnapfireBombi
InvokerAlaCrity
TidehunterMeracle
TuskPoloson
Grimstroke343
Game 2prediction missed21:39
Nigma Galaxy SEA 54%496 Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeinYourdreaM
GrimstrokeBombi
PuckAlaCrity
LycanMeracle
EnchantressPoloson
Snapfire343
Game 3prediction missed45:18
Nigma Galaxy SEA 48%496 Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkinYourdreaM
PhoenixBombi
Storm SpiritAlaCrity
Death ProphetMeracle
Earth SpiritPoloson
Ancient Apparition343
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 60%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3