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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
RedPanda · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 15 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RedPanda · 13 games
31%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
31%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 12 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CatYou · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 11 games
45%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 24 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 20 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
37%
Bane
Bane
BoBoKa · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
583 picks · 928 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
545 picks · 416 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 664 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 925 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 638 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 523 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
370 picks · 228 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 32%
Hero pool strength52% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total76% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:23
Roar Gaming 38%Yakult Brothers 62%
The model gave 62% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaukiyo
55% · 222 games39% · 59 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Kunkka
KunkkaButterflyEffect
44% · 137 games44% · 91 game
UnderlordYang
Underlord
Razor
Razor生死
56% · 61 game45% · 38 games
SniperMoon
Sniper
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLOyd
66% · 61 game42% · 193 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Lion
LionCatYou
59% · 62 games51% · 162 games
RingmasterBoBoKa
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct4:20
Roar Gaming 34%Yakult Brothers 66%
The model gave 66% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 21:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterukiyo
51% · 178 games43% · 165 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
48% · 224 games52% · 289 games
LeshracMoon
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal Beast生死
54% · 96 games53% · 223 games
UnderlordYang
Underlord
Jakiro
JakiroCatYou
52% · 303 games55% · 37 games
LargoBoBoKa
Largo
Tusk
TuskLOyd
48% · 329 games47% · 416 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 76%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2