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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
KuroKy · 6 games
50%

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 10 games
30%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fata · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fata · 5 games
20%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 5 games
80%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1007 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 593 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
358 picks · 184 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 362 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
328 picks · 511 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
318 picks · 691 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 227 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 281 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:28
Nigma Galaxy 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMiracle-
50% · 68 games47% · 38 games
LinaNine
Lina
Juggernaut
JuggernautiLTW
53% · 79 games58% · 15 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
61% · 10 games47% · 61 game
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
49% · 40 games55% · 70 games
SnapfireSneyking
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockKuroKy
41% · 31 game47% · 44 games
AbaddonFata
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct37:26
Nigma Galaxy 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaMiracle-
42% · 52 games58% · 29 games
Doom33
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritiLTW
53% · 79 games45% · 67 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
53% · 65 games50% · 122 games
MarsNine
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
47% · 51 game43% · 59 games
Ancient ApparitionFata
Ancient Apparition
Elder Titan
Elder TitanKuroKy
58% · 76 games53% · 46 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed32:34
Nigma Galaxy 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreiLTW
49% · 23 games48% · 106 games
JuggernautSkiter
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
51% · 31 game50% · 67 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyMiracle-
49% · 48 games56% · 16 games
MagnusNine
Magnus
Phoenix
PhoenixKuroKy
55% · 113 games40% · 18 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
48% · 38 games51% · 46 games
Ancient ApparitionFata
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3