Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 15 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 1010 bans
Mars
372 picks · 595 bans
Lion
358 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 363 bans
Void Spirit
333 picks · 511 bans
Death Prophet
319 picks · 696 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 227 bans
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:5
Team Secret 51%Brame 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 24:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNisha
GyrocopterFocus
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
PuckW1sh-
Magnuszai
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
SnapfireYapzOr
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
Winter WyvernPuppey
IoSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct30:25
Team Secret 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 56:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNisha
TinkerW1sh-
BroodmotherMATUMBAMAN
BloodseekerFocus
TinyYapzOr
BeastmasterSkyLark
Legion Commanderzai
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2