Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 14 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
402 picks · 1019 bans
Mars
369 picks · 598 bans
Lion
357 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 360 bans
Void Spirit
333 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 701 bans
Tusk
310 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Hellbear Smashers 38%HellRaisers 62%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 42:19.
Game 2prediction correct30:37
Hellbear Smashers 38%HellRaisers 62%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 41:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 62%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2