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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 26 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
78%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 64 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 51 game
57%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 41 game
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 32 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
583 picks · 926 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 416 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 664 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 923 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 638 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 522 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
369 picks · 228 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Team Yandex
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total52% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:7
Team Yandex 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzWatson
45% · 51 game52% · 187 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Puck
PuckChira JUNIOR
51% · 241 game51% · 215 games
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
59% · 59 games54% · 236 games
AxeBOOM
Axe
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
48% · 218 games61% · 15 games
LargoSeleri
Largo
Tusk
TuskMalady
43% · 359 games44% · 275 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct37:13
Team Yandex 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWatson
56% · 277 games45% · 255 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
50% · 99 games51% · 128 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
43% · 22 games48% · 83 games
SlarkMidOne
Slark
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSaksa
52% · 263 games56% · 156 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Warlock
WarlockMalady
49% · 370 games45% · 409 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 52%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2