i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Aster
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 22 games
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 12 games
Treant Protector
LaNm · 12 games
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 14 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
404 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
369 picks · 596 bans
Lion
352 picks · 184 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 359 bans
Void Spirit
332 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
318 picks · 701 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total51% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:22
Team Aster 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 50:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMonet
Axepoyoyo
RazorWhite丶Album
LeshracOri
TidehunterXxs
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
MiranaBoBoKa
LionPyw
Treant ProtectorLaNm
PhoenixDy
Game 2prediction correct20:32
Team Aster 46%Vici Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWhite丶Album
Shadow FiendOri
SlarkMonet
Spectrepoyoyo
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
TimbersawELeVeN
LionLaNm
Nyx AssassinPyw
IoBoBoKa
DisruptorDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 51%
Series resultVici Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2