Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Feltwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
Grimstrokeoften banned
yol · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Sword · 2 games
Tusk
Steelborco · 2 games
Warlock
yol · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Sword · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
yol · 1 game
Felt
Axeoften banned
Zore · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
solji · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
solji · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Zore · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Zore · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Kom4rt · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
370 picks · 597 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 359 bans
Lion
352 picks · 184 bans
Void Spirit
332 picks · 520 bans
Death Prophet
318 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
309 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
260 picks · 286 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 55%
Series resultFelt 0:1
Series predictioncorrect