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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 15 games
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 13 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 12 games
50%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 8 games
38%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 8 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
580 picks · 926 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 415 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
495 picks · 662 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 636 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 920 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 637 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 521 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
368 picks · 227 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Xtreme Gaming 66%Vici Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
50% · 133 games51% · 179 games
Morphlingshiro
Morphling
Slardar
SlardarXxs
52% · 208 games52% · 126 games
HuskarXm
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 333 games44% · 304 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
49% · 484 games52% · 153 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorfy
57% · 51 game44% · 447 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed7:21
Xtreme Gaming 65%Vici Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
46% · 153 games52% · 249 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
48% · 253 games51% · 257 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
43% · 294 games55% · 253 games
LeshracXm
Leshrac
Muerta
Muertafy
46% · 159 games60% · 75 games
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
46% · 350 games53% · 375 games
Disruptory`
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct21:16
Xtreme Gaming 67%Vici Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAme
49% · 278 games54% · 283 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
50% · 187 games47% · 61 game
RazorXm
Razor
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
42% · 344 games57% · 28 games
LargoFaith_bian
Largo
Chen
ChenxNova
56% · 156 games53% · 174 games
WindrangerpLAnet
Windranger
Lion
Lionfy
51% · 56 games47% · 475 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 78%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3