Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 12 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 8 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 1012 bans
Mars
369 picks · 597 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 356 bans
Lion
350 picks · 182 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 526 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 705 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Team Spirit 80%Team Unique 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:55.
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Team Spirit 80%Team Unique 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2