Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Fightersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 1014 bans
Mars
370 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 356 bans
Lion
351 picks · 182 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
327 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 288 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:31
Brame 48%Chicken Fighters 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Brame in 48:53.
Game 2prediction missed29:16
Brame 48%Chicken Fighters 52%
The model gave 52% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Brame in 38:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 52%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2