Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team MagMawin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LBZSloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
LBZS
Earth Spiritsignature
CatYou · 15 games
Tusk
CatYou · 12 games
Marssignature
Irving · 7 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Lion
CatYou · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
405 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
369 picks · 592 bans
Grimstroke
349 picks · 356 bans
Lion
346 picks · 180 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 704 bans
Tusk
306 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Team MagMa
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Team MagMa 42%LBZS 58%
The model gave 58% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 39:56.
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Team MagMa 42%LBZS 58%
The model gave 58% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 35:25.
Game 3prediction correct33:19
Team MagMa 42%LBZS 58%
The model gave 58% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 37:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 58%
Series resultTeam MagMa 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3