Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team DogChamploss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team DogChamp
Marssignature
lukiluki · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 8 games
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Rubicksignature
yarintheslayer · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
370 picks · 591 bans
Grimstroke
349 picks · 357 bans
Lion
344 picks · 180 bans
Void Spirit
331 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 704 bans
Tusk
306 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:35
Team DogChamp 62%Arkosh Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 27:50.
Game 2prediction correct34:23
Team DogChamp 62%Arkosh Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 31:34.
Game 3prediction missed32:36
Team DogChamp 62%Arkosh Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 48:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 62%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3