Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4 Zoomerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 1014 bans
Mars
370 picks · 589 bans
Grimstroke
349 picks · 357 bans
Lion
344 picks · 179 bans
Void Spirit
332 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 703 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
259 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% 4 Zoomers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:19
simply TOOBASED 40%4 Zoomers 60%
The model gave 60% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 35:48.
Game 2prediction correct40:10
simply TOOBASED 40%4 Zoomers 60%
The model gave 60% on 4 Zoomers — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 34:41.
Model check result
Model favorite4 Zoomers · 60%
Series result4 Zoomers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2