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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniquewin 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
20%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 5 games
80%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1016 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 590 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
348 picks · 358 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
342 picks · 179 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
336 picks · 529 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 705 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
261 picks · 285 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:30
Team Unique 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:10:19.
Game 2prediction correct21:36
Team Unique 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:03.
Game 3prediction correct23:11
Team Unique 39%Natus Vincere 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 61%
Series resultTeam Unique 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3