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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 0:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoTechies

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 8 games
13%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Malik · 6 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
xsvampire · 5 games
20%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Solo · 5 games
20%

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 6 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
633 · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Muka · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1013 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 589 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
341 picks · 179 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
336 picks · 530 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
261 picks · 285 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Fantastic Five
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
NoTechies 40%Fantastic Five 60%
The model gave 60% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 29:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerlayme
53% · 35 games56% · 84 games
TinyAskold
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEgor
46% · 56 games55% · 95 games
Centaur WarrunnerSuperNova
Centaur Warrunner
Pudge
PudgeDkFogas
little data53% · 52 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Lion
Lionxsvampire
41% · 86 games56% · 49 games
Ancient Apparition633
Ancient Apparition
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSolo
44% · 103 games
Game 2prediction correct19:37
NoTechies 39%Fantastic Five 61%
The model gave 61% on Fantastic Five — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautlayme
50% · 116 games49% · 179 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyEgor
44% · 74 games48% · 96 games
TidehunterSuperNova
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsDkFogas
57% · 178 games50% · 70 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSolo
53% · 95 games44% · 162 games
Grimstroke633
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonxsvampire
58% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteFantastic Five · 66%
Series resultFantastic Five 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2