Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Elephantloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 27 games
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 17 games
Death Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
369 picks · 589 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 357 bans
Lion
341 picks · 179 bans
Void Spirit
336 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 704 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
261 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total84% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:20
LGD Gaming 84%Elephant 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Elephant in 42:29.
Game 2prediction correct40:26
LGD Gaming 84%Elephant 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 50:26.
Game 3prediction correct28:8
LGD Gaming 84%Elephant 16%
The model gave 84% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 84%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3