Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Sparking Arrow Gaming
Elder Titan
XCJ · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
September · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 7 games
Mirana
September · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 1013 bans
Mars
369 picks · 587 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 357 bans
Lion
340 picks · 179 bans
Void Spirit
337 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
326 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 285 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 26%
Hero pool strength52% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:42
Invictus Gaming 82%Sparking Arrow Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 44:20.
Game 2prediction missed39:23
Invictus Gaming 82%Sparking Arrow Gaming 18%
The model gave 82% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 41:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 82%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2