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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 14 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 12 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
50%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 10 games
90%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 10 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
56%

Infinity Esports

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Nuages · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
100%
Luna
Luna
Benny · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1010 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 585 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 357 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
339 picks · 179 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
337 picks · 527 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 706 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
264 picks · 283 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:6
Thunder Awaken 79%Infinity Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:50.
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Thunder Awaken 79%Infinity Esports 21%
The model gave 79% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 79%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2