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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 18 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1008 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 583 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
347 picks · 358 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
337 picks · 177 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
337 picks · 526 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
326 picks · 704 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:11
Alliance 56%Hellbear Smashers 44%
The model gave 56% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 26:05.
Game 2prediction correct25:10
Alliance 56%Hellbear Smashers 44%
The model gave 56% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 32:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 56%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2