Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 1008 bans
Mars
365 picks · 583 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 356 bans
Void Spirit
340 picks · 527 bans
Lion
338 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
329 picks · 704 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:30
HellRaisers 62%PuckChamp 38%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 49:53.
Game 2prediction missed22:30
HellRaisers 62%PuckChamp 38%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 41:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 62%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2