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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 9 games
33%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 17 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 1007 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 583 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
348 picks · 355 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
341 picks · 527 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
337 picks · 177 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
329 picks · 701 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 282 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:17
EXTREMUM 40%Hellbear Smashers 60%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 21:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
45% · 107 games59% · 43 games
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Juggernaut
JuggernautNefrit
45% · 154 games49% · 83 games
Monkey KingAce
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
40% · 68 games53% · 183 games
MarsMISERY
Mars
Lion
LionChuvash
49% · 137 games51% · 137 games
PhoenixtOfu
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireG
47% · 95 games62% · 115 games
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct16:52
EXTREMUM 42%Hellbear Smashers 58%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracmellojul
44% · 48 games45% · 15 games
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Slark
SlarkNefrit
52% · 11 games51% · 42 games
Ember SpiritAce
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerShachlo
51% · 33 games51% · 77 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Warlock
WarlockG
46% · 13 games49% · 63 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinChuvash
61% · 116 games32% · 24 games
BrewmasterMISERY
Brewmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 63%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2