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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 9 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 1004 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 580 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 355 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
341 picks · 527 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
335 picks · 177 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 700 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
306 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 282 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:3
Omega Esports 50%BOOM Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkTino-
48% · 24 games61% · 43 games
MedusaDreamocel
Medusa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSam_H
46% · 72 gameslittle data
Chaos KnightFbz
Chaos Knight
Invoker
InvokerMac
44% · 41 game52% · 44 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
52% · 59 games43% · 85 games
GrimstrokeHyde
Grimstroke
58% · 24 games
Treant ProtectorKhezcute
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct25:15
Omega Esports 54%BOOM Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperTino-
little data56% · 26 games
MedusaMikoto
Medusa
Bristleback
BristlebackMac
51% · 30 games40% · 41 game
UrsaDreamocel
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSam_H
55% · 80 games44% · 29 games
Legion CommanderFbz
Legion Commander
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassincml
58% · 85 games44% · 65 games
LionHyde
Lion
41% · 34 games
Elder TitanKhezcute
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 51%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2