Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lilgunwin 2:0series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 10 games
Mirana
Tims · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 6 games
Tinysignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 5 games
Lion
Boomy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 1002 bans
Mars
361 picks · 578 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 355 bans
Void Spirit
341 picks · 527 bans
Lion
334 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
306 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:34
Lilgun 19%TNC Predator 81%
The model gave 81% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 44:19.
Game 2prediction correct22:45
Lilgun 19%TNC Predator 81%
The model gave 81% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 81%
Series resultLilgun 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2