Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SG e-sportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 1001 bans
Mars
361 picks · 577 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 527 bans
Grimstroke
342 picks · 354 bans
Lion
334 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 699 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 223 bans
Earth Spirit
263 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:37
beastcoast 76%SG e-sports 24%
The model gave 76% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 48:11.
Game 2prediction missed42:32
beastcoast 76%SG e-sports 24%
The model gave 76% on beastcoast — the game was taken by SG e-sports in 42:06.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 76%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2