Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 18 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 13 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 11 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 11 games
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 11 games
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 996 bans
Mars
361 picks · 572 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 522 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 353 bans
Lion
331 picks · 180 bans
Death Prophet
325 picks · 698 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:23
ViKin.gg 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracBOOM
MedusaYatoro
SlarkShad
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
TidehunterKheZu
AxeCollapse
Shadow DemonAramis
GrimstrokeMira
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
TuskMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed8:33
ViKin.gg 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenShad
AxeCollapse
Night StalkerKheZu
LifestealerYatoro
EnchantressAramis
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
TinyBOOM
ClockwerkMira
GrimstrokeSeleri
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 62%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2