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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
43%

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 998 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
359 picks · 572 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
342 picks · 524 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 352 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
331 picks · 180 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
325 picks · 699 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 222 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
262 picks · 277 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 39%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Nemiga Gaming 59%B8 Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomTheChosenOne
53% · 35 games66% · 15 games
SvenWatson
Sven
Tiny
TinyAinkrad
54% · 75 games46% · 107 games
PuckDendi
Puck
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
51% · 17 games43% · 3 games
OmniknightLimitless
Omniknight
Snapfire
SnapfireLodine
47% · 56 games47% · 64 games
Earth Spirit[T]SA
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
49% · 43 games52% · 37 games
Ancient Apparitionnofear
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Nemiga Gaming 59%B8 Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 50:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
50% · 81 game52% · 45 games
MedusaWatson
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
53% · 205 games49% · 212 games
PuckDendi
Puck
Sven
SvenTheChosenOne
51% · 11 games46% · 23 games
MagnusLimitless
Magnus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
58% · 23 games48% · 68 games
Clockwerknofear
Clockwerk
Snapfire
SnapfireLodine
51% · 72 games43% · 44 games
Dark Willow[T]SA
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2