Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 993 bans
Mars
348 picks · 573 bans
Void Spirit
344 picks · 525 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 351 bans
Lion
327 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
324 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Team Unique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
Team Unique 37%Chicken Fighters 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 32:22.
Game 2prediction correct28:19
Team Unique 37%Chicken Fighters 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 39:44.
Game 3prediction correct20:10
Team Unique 37%Chicken Fighters 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 22:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 63%
Series resultChicken Fighters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3