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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Muka · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 7 games
43%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 5 games
40%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
633 · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Muka · 3 games
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
45%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 7 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 992 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 571 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
343 picks · 524 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 350 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
325 picks · 177 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
323 picks · 700 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 278 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:19
Fantastic Five 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
47% · 171 game41% · 7 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Slardar
SlardarSuperNova
54% · 27 games45% · 59 games
TinyAinkrad
Tiny
Lina
LinaMuka
61% · 37 games50% · 55 games
TidehunterTheChosenOne
Tidehunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition633
50% · 31 game56% · 18 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
46% · 127 games
LionLodine
Lion
Game 2prediction missed26:9
Fantastic Five 39%Nemiga Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
44% · 173 games54% · 57 games
Troll WarlordKiritych
Troll Warlord
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSuperNova
59% · 9 games54% · 87 games
Death ProphetAinkrad
Death Prophet
Undying
Undying633
51% · 41 game40% · 6 games
MagnusTheChosenOne
Magnus
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
55% · 43 games63% · 28 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
39% · 88 games
GrimstrokeLodine
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 63%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2