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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 26 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
76%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 13 games
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Pyw · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 988 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 571 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
343 picks · 524 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 348 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
324 picks · 699 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
322 picks · 176 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 223 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 279 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total63% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:31
LGD Gaming 56%Vici Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 51:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAme
36% · 15 games54% · 56 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
48% · 196 games45% · 65 games
Ursapoyoyo
Ursa
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
51% · 34 games51% · 19 games
Faceless VoidELeVeN
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
53% · 84 games48% · 137 games
LionPyw
Lion
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
51% · 21 game53% · 73 games
AbaddonDy
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed22:27
LGD Gaming 57%Vici Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightAme
46% · 7 games47% · 22 games
Lifestealerpoyoyo
Lifestealer
Zeus
ZeusNothingToSay
little data39% · 26 games
Legion CommanderELeVeN
Legion Commander
Underlord
UnderlordFaith_bian
51% · 18 games40% · 36 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
61% · 51 game59% · 9 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
55% · 70 games46% · 53 games
LionPyw
Lion
Game 3prediction correct34:19
LGD Gaming 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
51% · 19 games46% · 23 games
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
55% · 58 games46% · 63 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
51% · 109 games46% · 30 games
SlardarELeVeN
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
53% · 70 games57% · 72 games
Elder TitanPyw
Elder Titan
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitiony`
47% · 33 games44% · 101 game
OracleDy
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 63%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3