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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 14 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 12 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
50%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 10 games
90%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 10 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 991 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 573 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 524 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 348 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
324 picks · 700 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
322 picks · 176 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 280 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 70%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect