Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
zai · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 5 games
Team Liquid
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
Pucksignature
miCKe · 18 games
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Tinysignature
Taiga · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
Razorsignature
qojqva · 9 games
Slardarsignature
Boxi · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 991 bans
Mars
349 picks · 572 bans
Void Spirit
345 picks · 527 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 346 bans
Death Prophet
328 picks · 701 bans
Lion
321 picks · 176 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 225 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
Team Secret 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMATUMBAMAN
Faceless VoidmiCKe
PuckNisha
LeshracSumaiL
Beastmasterzai
SnapfireTaiga
Sand KingYapzOr
Magnusqojqva
Ancient ApparitionPuppey
OracleiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction missed27:12
Team Secret 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Secret in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMATUMBAMAN
JuggernautmiCKe
WindrangerNisha
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Omniknightzai
Magnusqojqva
Dark WillowYapzOr
EnchantressTaiga
SnapfirePuppey
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Game 3prediction correct25:6
Team Secret 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 28:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingMATUMBAMAN
GyrocopterSumaiL
RazorNisha
IomiCKe
Magnuszai
Legion Commanderqojqva
WindrangerYapzOr
SnapfireTaiga
Winter WyvernPuppey
AbaddoniNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 50%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3