Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 11 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 991 bans
Mars
349 picks · 569 bans
Void Spirit
347 picks · 526 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 343 bans
Death Prophet
331 picks · 701 bans
Lion
321 picks · 177 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 66%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:8
Team Spirit 65%HellRaisers 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:27.
Game 2prediction correct33:17
Team Spirit 65%HellRaisers 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2