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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bald Reborn

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Pablo · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
5up · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Rajjix · 3 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pablo · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rajjix · 2 games
0%

Hippomaniacs

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 991 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 569 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
347 picks · 526 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 343 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
331 picks · 701 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
321 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 226 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 17%
Hero pool strength54% Team Bald Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:29
Team Bald Reborn 85%Hippomaniacs 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 49:30.
Game 2prediction correct15:1
Team Bald Reborn 85%Hippomaniacs 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 20:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 85%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2