Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 990 bans
Void Spirit
349 picks · 524 bans
Mars
348 picks · 569 bans
Grimstroke
340 picks · 340 bans
Death Prophet
332 picks · 702 bans
Lion
320 picks · 177 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:18
Fnatic 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 29:09.
Game 2prediction missed28:18
Fnatic 59%T1 41%
The model gave 59% on Fnatic — the game was taken by T1 in 36:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 59%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2