Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Mirana
Skem · 13 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 13 games
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
Sand King
PlayHard · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
405 picks · 989 bans
Void Spirit
348 picks · 524 bans
Mars
347 picks · 568 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 339 bans
Death Prophet
332 picks · 701 bans
Lion
319 picks · 177 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 226 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:7
Neon Esports 81%Lilgun 19%
The model gave 81% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 22:36.
Game 2prediction correct40:23
Neon Esports 81%Lilgun 19%
The model gave 81% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 81%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2