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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 12 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 9 games
89%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 8 games
38%

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 13 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 986 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
348 picks · 523 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 566 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 339 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 700 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
319 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 225 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 281 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
EHOME 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSylar
33% · 5 games46% · 28 games
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Tiny
TinyXm
54% · 34 games51% · 23 games
BroodmotherELeVeN
Broodmother
Mars
MarsChalice
45% · 74 games46% · 51 game
Legion CommanderOri
Legion Commander
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFrisk
53% · 58 games43% · 96 games
RubickPyw
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
56% · 58 games65% · 31 game
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed41:21
EHOME 42%Vici Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracXm
42% · 25 games54% · 21 game
Lifestealerpoyoyo
Lifestealer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSylar
40% · 15 gameslittle data
ZeusOri
Zeus
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightChalice
little data61% · 46 games
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFrisk
44% · 29 games47% · 25 games
LinaPyw
Lina
Tusk
TuskxNova
52% · 36 games48% · 13 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed37:17
EHOME 43%Vici Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by EHOME in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSylar
55% · 35 games50% · 21 game
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidXm
55% · 20 games63% · 25 games
BristlebackOri
Bristleback
Leshrac
LeshracChalice
44% · 39 games56% · 45 games
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierFrisk
46% · 46 games42% · 30 games
LinaPyw
Lina
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonxNova
54% · 22 games43% · 41 game
ClockwerkDy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 62%
Series resultEHOME 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3