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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 26 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 18 games
78%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 27 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 25 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 24 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 23 games
65%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nightfall · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
576 picks · 923 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 411 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 659 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 631 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 910 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 629 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 519 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
365 picks · 224 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Team Yandex
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:27
Team Yandex 59%Aurora Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaChira JUNIOR
47% · 155 games54% · 102 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendWatson
53% · 148 games51% · 315 games
BeastmasterLorenof
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
46% · 181 game55% · 106 games
BrewmasterWs
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
53% · 109 games49% · 245 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskMalady
46% · 440 games49% · 265 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed28:32
Team Yandex 61%Aurora Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 40:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
50% · 159 games53% · 163 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangerWatson
46% · 280 games53% · 196 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Slardar
SlardarChira JUNIOR
46% · 286 games45% · 296 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenMalady
57% · 224 games45% · 148 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSaksa
54% · 350 games50% · 496 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 66%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2