?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 9 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 5 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Fata · 4 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 989 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
351 picks · 525 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 569 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 339 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
334 picks · 701 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
318 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 228 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:22
Tundra Esports 37%Alliance 63%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:16.
Game 2prediction correct21:12
Tundra Esports 37%Alliance 63%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 32:08.
Game 3prediction correct19:9
Tundra Esports 37%Alliance 63%
The model gave 63% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 27:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 63%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3