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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Game Masterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 22 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 20 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
37%
Bane
Bane
BoBoKa · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
29%

Game Master

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
7e · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
JT- · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Kaka · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaka · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Monet · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Poloson · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
7e · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
574 picks · 920 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
538 picks · 409 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 656 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 629 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
421 picks · 905 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 626 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 517 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
364 picks · 223 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Game Master
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Yakult Brothers 56%Game Master 44%
The model gave 56% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverflyfly
40% · 81 game51% · 363 games
Dragon KnightMonet
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckMoon
54% · 323 games54% · 157 games
TidehunterJT-
Tidehunter
Undying
UndyingYang
47% · 111 games48% · 31 game
Razor7e
Razor
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterBoBoKa
52% · 140 games50% · 304 games
WarlockPoloson
Warlock
Disruptor
Disruptor天命
50% · 247 games49% · 47 games
Nyx AssassinKaka
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed12:28
Yakult Brothers 57%Game Master 43%
The model gave 57% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Game Master in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendflyfly
50% · 194 games51% · 408 games
Dragon KnightMonet
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyMoon
51% · 377 games43% · 285 games
MarsJT-
Mars
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerYang
52% · 399 games49% · 81 game
Razor7e
Razor
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
51% · 217 games46% · 187 games
PhoenixKaka
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant Protector天命
56% · 53 games53% · 279 games
DisruptorPoloson
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct19:10
Yakult Brothers 58%Game Master 42%
The model gave 58% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingflyfly
64% · 129 games45% · 161 game
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawYang
48% · 162 games50% · 79 games
BrewmasterJT-
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMoon
56% · 329 games42% · 455 games
Tiny7e
Tiny
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
58% · 99 games42% · 197 games
Dark WillowKaka
Dark Willow
Disruptor
Disruptor天命
51% · 193 games48% · 20 games
LargoPoloson
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 66%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3