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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Muka · 5 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 5 games
20%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
633 · 3 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Muka · 3 games
0%

B8 Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
43%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 991 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
364 picks · 532 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 570 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
340 picks · 706 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 332 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
314 picks · 172 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 283 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:14
Fantastic Five 47%B8 Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 41:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
44% · 96 games53% · 20 games
Shadow FiendDendi
Shadow Fiend
Necrophos
NecrophosSuperNova
57% · 3 games65% · 20 games
SpectreWatson
Spectre
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
49% · 21 game54% · 73 games
BeastmasterLimitless
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition633
50% · 30 games44% · 24 games
Lina[T]SA
Lina
52% · 13 games
Treant Protectornofear
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed41:28
Fantastic Five 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by Fantastic Five in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckAskold
48% · 137 games50% · 73 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Slardar
SlardarSuperNova
48% · 17 games52% · 57 games
LeshracDendi
Leshrac
Grimstroke
Grimstroke633
44% · 108 games60% · 91 game
BeastmasterLimitless
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
45% · 33 games55% · 57 games
Clockwerk[T]SA
Clockwerk
48% · 17 games
Treant Protectornofear
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 52%
Series resultFantastic Five 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2